US Shale Gas & Shale Oil overhyped

Regarding natural gas, the fundamentals on the ground are not nearly as good as the hype. The number of rigs on the ground has gone down 75% the last couple of years, as the wells are very short-lived, and it takes an enormous amount of money to keep them up. A number of companies have had to lower estimates of their reserves.

As for oil shale, typical wells deplete at 38 per cent the first year. Thus you need a lot of drilling, money, and a high price to keep up production rates.  All you have to do is go out in the oil patch. I believe the investment world will be disappointed with the notion that supply is so great that oil will collapse.



Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.

Jim Rogers: Shale Gas Wells are very Expensive to Maintain

Ludwig: Now, on the natural gas front, how much thought have you given to this ramping up of production in the States? There's talk about exports. Do you see that as a realistic prospect that the United States will become a gas exporter?

Jim Rogers: I read the same things you do. But what I don’t read much about is the fact that the number of drilling rigs for shale gas has gone down 75 percent in the last 18 months or so. Because it turns out that these wells are very short-lived. They're great for the first 30 days. But by year three or four, they're very expensive to maintain.
Two things come to mind. One is that I presume human ingenuity will solve that problem somehow. But if it’s a geological problem and it cannot be solved, then the gas boom is not quite what we all thought it might be. And I’m told the same applies to the shale oil wells. - in indexuniverse


Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.