Saturday, August 8, 2015
JIM ROGERS - Gold Price Due a 50% Correction in 2015
Famed commodity investor Jim Rogers is on Kitco News to speak about the Chinese and US economy, gold, and even bitcoin. Rogers has some very interesting thoughts about the yellow metal and where he thinks it may be headed. “Gold is still correcting… I expect there to be another opportunity to buy gold sometime in the next year or two.” He also shares his insights on the US economy and how he is not so confident in the US dollar given the country’s elevated debt levels. “No country in world history has got itself into this kind of situation and got out without a crisis or semi-crisis.” He also shares some insights on bitcoin and what he thinks of the cryptocurrency. Does the following contrast sound familiar to you? Mainstream media headlines, mostly based on either mainstream economists or large financial institutions, report continuously how weak the precious metals market is; they hasten to remember readers how the bull market had burst in 2011 and that much lower prices are just around the corner. In their view, after peaking in 2011, gold and silver are in a clear bear market. On the other hand, writers and analysts that are non-mainstream (most of them non-Keynesian) consider today’s gold and silver market as a long correction in a gigantic secular uptrend; they expect (much) higher prices in the years to come. The interesting thing is that everyone is looking at the same data and charts.
The key question is whether the gold market is correcting in a secular trend or the bear market is here to stay (till the next cycle starts). Guessing isn’t very useful when it comes to investing, but if I had to make a guess I would say that both metals sell off one final time into a lower low by early 2015. Based on historical analogues alone, Gold seems to be following the 1996-99 bear market quite well and could bottom around March 2015. At the same time if Silver falls to a lower low around March 2015, that would be one of the longest and most oversold downtrends (not including the 1980-82 bubble crash).
It almost happened in 2008… but as this excerpt from Casey Research’s Meltdown America documentary notes, it appears the US military is preparing for the potential collapse of the US dollar. As Scott Taylor warns, “…if the carrot (of credit worthiness) is fading, and the stick (of military threat) is weak, that empire is going to come down in a hurry…” which leaves a serial economic mis-manager only one option to ‘secure’ the empire. The US government has run up trillions of dollars in debt, and given the recent debates over the country’s debt ceiling, we can rest assured that neither Congress or the President will act to curtail spending and balance the budget. We will continue adding trillions of dollars to the national debt clock until such time that our creditors no longer lend us money. Well, the primary events are fairly predictable: they would include major collapses in the bond and stock markets and possible sudden deflation (primarily of assets), followed by dramatic inflation, if not hyperinflation (primarily of commodities), followed by a crash of several major currencies, particularly the euro and the US dollar.
Food Shortages. The food industry operates on very small profit margins and survives only as a result of quick payment of invoices. With dramatic inflation Riots. These will likely happen spontaneously due to the above conditions, but if not, governments will create them to justify their desire for greater control of the masses. Martial Law. The US has already prepared for this, with the passing of the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which many interpret as declaring the US to be a “battlefield.” The NDAA allows the suspension of habeas corpus, indefinite detention,
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
Who is Jim Rogers ?
James "Jim" Rogers was born in Oct. 19, 1942 and grew up in Demopolis, Alabama .Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendry investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%. They ran what is considered to be one of the first truly global macro hedge funds. . In 1964 he got his first job on Wall Street at Dominick & Dominick in the summer between high school and Yale University, that's how he got his first experience with stocks and bonds. He immediately fell in love with the job. After Oxford, he returned to the U.S. and joined the army in 1970 he returned to Wall Street, working again with Dominick & Dominick. That same year he joined Arnold S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros, and together founded the Quantum Fund. This has opened a new era of global macrotrading and inspired numerous imitations and spin-offs. In the book "Money Masters of Our Time," Jim Rogers writes about that time "the most important thing in my life was work. I did not do anything until I had completed my work." To emphasize this professional ethic , it is good to remember that he did not made any holiday for ten years. In 1980, Jim Rogers has decided to "retire" at 37 years. Since then he has spent much of his time traveling and supporting the causes of philanthropic and taking on many high profile roles in the media. However, he continues to be an active investor and media commentator