Mr Trump has said he's going to do some wonderful things he's going to cut taxes which is always great for any society in any country he said he's going to rebuild the infrastructure which America desperately needs and is good for America he says he's going to bring home the three trillion dollars u.s. dollars which American companies have a oversees all of these things are wonderful wonderful things and if he can do it wow he's going to be great but mr. Trump is also said he's going to have trade war with China Mexico Japan Korea do other people that he has named he swore that on his first day in office he would impose 45% tariffs against China has been there three weeks two or three weeks and he hasn't done it yet but he 0:57 still got it in his head I'm sure but 0:59 maybe he's just another politician like 1:01 all the rest of them says one thing it 1:03 doesn't mean it at all but he does have 1:06 at least three people in high levels in 1:10 his group were very very keen to have 1:13 trade wars with China and other people 1:15 if he does that Eric it's all over 1:19 I mean issues very clear that trade was 1:22 always lead to problems often to 1:25 disaster sometimes even to real war 1:28 shooting war so i don't know i'm not 1:31 sure mr. truck knows he said so many 1:33 things and many of the things a 1:35 contradictory now if he's not going to 1:38 have trade wars with various people then 1:41 chances are for a while 1:43 happy days are here but i still own the 1:47 dollar that our forces having a 1:49 correction now you know all bull markets 1:52 need corrections directions are good i 1:54 haven't sold any I may have even bought 1:57 more for all I know 1:59 no I still see the same thing that 2:01 whatever happens in the world there is 2:03 going to be some turmoil somewhere on 2:06 the line 2:07 we're already seeing it in some places 2:09 you're still having its own version of 2:12 turmoil is going to have a lot 2:13 add more this year so the dollar is 2:15 going to be quote a safe haven as we 2:18 discussed last year again is not a safe 2:21 haven but it is perceived as a safe 2:24 haven and ended back for some countries 2:26 it is a safe haven compared to state 2:28 that you're over other other currencies 2:31 so I still on the dollar the 2:33 fundamentals have only gotten worse but 2:35 the fundamentals have gotten everywhere 2:37 have gotten worse everywhere except 2:39 maybe Russia so I still own the US 2:41 dollar I've been around long enough to 2:44 know that anything is possible no matter 2:47 how weird it may sound in fact the 2:49 weirder it sounds more likely it's 2:51 probably going to have them I i doubt if 2:54 it's gonna be applied to record this 2:55 time around it's more like this that the 2:58 dollar is going to go higher and higher 2:59 on its own volition for some of the 3:02 reasons we discussed it will get too 3:04 high it will be it will cause serious 3:07 credit problems for some people that got 3:09 a lot of people at bart a lot of dollars 3:12 it will also make many American 3:14 companies less competitive so the money 3:16 is going to go to high may turn into a 3:19 bubble at which point i hope i'm smart 3:22 enough to sell it because at some point 3:24 market forces are going to cause the 3:27 dollar to come back down because people 3:29 are going to realize oh my gosh this is 3:31 causing a lot of turmoil economic 3:35 problems in the world and it's damaging 3:37 the American economy at that point the 3:40 smart guys will get out i hope i'm one 3:42 of them but if it turns into a ball 3:45 bubbles look the same and no matter what 3:48 country what period of history would be 3:49 what assets now everybody scream / 3:53 screaming that it's different this time 3:55 you don't understand your man you just 3:57 cannot understand why everybody needs on 4:00 under own dollars so the signs will 4:03 always be there are signs along the way 4:05 will be some of the things i mentioned 4:07 you will start seeing bankruptcies by 4:10 companies are countries that are 4:13 extended overextended in US dollars and 4:16 cents dollars going higher 4:18 they cannot repay their debts you will 4:20 see American companies and American 4:23 balance of trade getting worse because 4:25 of the high dollar 4:27 the signs will be pretty clear pretty 4:29 pretty simple science they've been 4:30 around for hundreds of years thousands 4:33 of years 4:33 I just hope I'm smart enough to 4:35 recognize them and have the inside to 4:38 interpret them properly all those guys 4:41 are smarter than I am so I I don't know 4:44 I anyway i'm not short bonds at the 4:47 moment certainly would have been a good 4:48 trade last summer as you pointed out 4:51 that once made a a higher interest rates 4:55 may be lower long-term rates made alone 4:57 they have rallied sense but for my money 5:01 right now as we speak in favor of 2017 5:05 everybody is bullish on long-term US 5:08 government bonds I've been around long 5:10 enough Eric to know that when 5:12 everybody's on the same side of the boat 5:14 I better one to the other side so i am 5:16 not shorting government bonds i am sure 5:19 your junk bonds still if and when the 5:23 new changes and people less skeptical of 5:26 bonds go down and everybody starts 5:28 saying oh bonds cheated me she lied to 5:32 me they've had then I might be ready to 5:35 short Rollins again because we're 5:36 certainly in the process of making a top 5:40 when that top comes I don't know I'm 5:43 smart I'm a very very very bad market 5:45 time as you know I'm a very very bad 5:48 short-term trader so you should have 5:50 those other guys to get your timing 5:53 well I happen to agree with you a 5:55 hundred percent that very fact that I'm 5:57 still so much junk bonds but it means is 6:00 definitely the timing is wrong I no junk 6:03 interest rates start going up again 6:07 formerly when the wonderful market 6:09 really does come to an end in the 6:11 interest rates government bonds interest 6:14 rates are going to go very very high 6:16 very very high 6:18 I told you how I you would probably hang 6:20 up now and not listen to me anymore but 6:23 you know in 1981 interest rate 6:26 short-term interest rates in America 6:28 were over twenty percent bonds wielding 6:30 over long-term bonds building over 6:32 fifteen percent we've had these long 6:34 bull and bear markets in bonds in the 6:38 United States and we probably will like 6:40 him when interest rates go higher the 6:43 junk bonds again it going to get 6:45 destroyed both by interest rates and by 6:47 credit default because many of them are 6:50 in fact chunk that you know the 6:53 companies are not great credit risk and 6:55 they're gonna they're gonna pay the 6:57 price 6:58 I'm so why do you think governments 7:00 cannot go bankrupt it's happened 7:02 throughout history the norm is for 7:04 governments to go bankrupt over any 7:06 extended periods of time including the 7:08 countries which are on top after the 7:11 First World War hundred years ago UK was 7:14 the richest most powerful country in the 7:16 world it was no number two 7:17 well I can remember when the UK went 7:20 bankrupt in the NNI two generations 7:22 later three generations later could not 7:25 sell long-term debt the IMF had to bail 7:27 them out 7:28 you're not old enough to remember when 7:29 the French were like that or the Spanish 7:31 for the Dutch you know everybody has 7:34 been on top without everybody but many 7:36 people have been on top one time or 7:38 another 7:39 they've all gone bankrupt why do you 7:42 think people cannot go bankrupt 7:44 well Eric I suggest that you do a little 7:49 more research although i don't think you 7:52 need to quit you you know you're very 7:54 knowledgeable but if you do a lot of 7:57 research and become knowledgeable about 7:59 what's going on in the world you're 8:01 going to get very very word and if you 8:03 get very very worried you're gonna I 8:04 hope get prepared because we're going to 8:07 have the worst economic problems we've 8:10 had in your lifetime or my lifetime and 8:12 when that happens a lot of people are 8:15 going to disappear 1980s are 2008 bear 8:20 stearns disappeared bear stearns have 8:22 been around over 90 years 8:23 Lehman Brothers disappeared lehman bros 8:26 been run over a hundred and fifty years 8:28 a long time a long glorious history been 8:32 through Wars depression civil war 8:34 they've been to everything and yet they 8:36 disappeared so the next time around is 8:39 going to be worse than anything we've 8:40 seen a lot of institutions people 8:44 companies even countries certainly a 8:48 governments and maybe even countries are 8:50 going to disappear i hope you get very 8:52 worried 8:53 well let's just talk about some of the 8:56 things going to happen in the next 8:57 couple of years and then I think we can 8:59 draw further conclusions there going to 9:02 be more movements in Europe for instance 9:05 24 countries to split up and for 9:08 countries to leave the EU you mentioned 9:11 the France before there are people in 9:13 France you want to split the country of 9:15 people in Italy Spain Belgium we want to 9:18 split those countries they are now going 9:21 to be encouraged by the fact that breaks 9:23 it was successful the Scots are going to 9:26 have another election about the 9:27 possibility of leaving the UK whether 9:31 these things happen or not 9:33 Eric I don't know yet i have used but 9:36 who cares but we're certainly going to 9:38 have the ongoing turmoil that these 9:41 movements are alive and well and will be 9:44 very active and vocal and visible for a 9:47 while now let's assume it's certainly 9:49 less prism for a moment and some of them 9:53 are successful 9:54 well if if the europe in Union starts 9:57 breaking up for the euro starts breaking 9:59 up 10:00 that's gonna throw a spanner and a lot 10:02 of people's works because nobody's 10:03 really sort of planned on that most of 10:06 the bonds of eurobonds none of that very 10:09 few of them now have any provision for 10:11 what happens if there is no euro I mean 10:15 usually owns several billion dollars 10:18 worth of bonds suppose Italy pulls out 10:21 of the euro and they suddenly say okay 10:24 we're going to pay you back in Lyra well 10:26 that's that's going to confuse a lot of 10:29 people and caused a lot more turmoil you 10:32 have the same sorts of movements in Asia 10:35 not nearly as powerful as vocal yet but 10:39 you have the same sort of every window 10:41 in the United States is a movement now 10:43 for California to withdrawal from the US 10:46 and by the way in the u.s. a lot of 10:48 people would like to see California 10:49 leave the US so it may work it may work 10:53 both ways so when you start having bear 10:55 markets as you have sure well no one bad 10:59 things happened in another bad thing 11:01 happens in these things snowball just 11:04 like in bull markets good news comes out 11:06 then more 11:07 good news comes out the next thing you 11:09 know you're five or six or seven years 11:10 into a bull market will bear markets do 11:13 the same thing and so we have a lot of 11:16 bad news on the horizon 11:18 I haven't even gotten to war haven't 11:20 even gotten to trade war or anything 11:22 like that but you know things do go 11:24 wrong 11:25 whenever things are solved a hot bad and 11:29 things are going wrong people look for 11:31 somebody to play they always throughout 11:33 history wherever we are which whichever 11:35 country we're discussing the first 11:38 people blamed always the foreigners have 11:41 different color skin different languages 11:43 different religions different food they 11:46 smell bad their food smells bad 11:49 I cannot tell you how many times I've 11:51 heard people talk about how oh those 11:53 people their food smells bad and they 11:56 smell bad too so it's very easy it's 11:59 always happen that way to blame the 12:01 forest for better for worse it seems it 12:04 has happened if you point out in the US 12:07 again but it's also happening you know 12:09 the places that germany france italy 12:12 many places they're blaming the 12:14 foreigners already again it's even 12:18 happening in Singapore to some extent 12:19 where i live nothing like nothing like 12:21 in Europe at the moment and as you roll 12:26 up against the florist most countries 12:29 historically have closed off one way or 12:31 the other they close their borders they 12:33 close their economies and when you close 12:35 the economy it leads to economic 12:38 problems and sometimes eventually if you 12:41 get real serious trade Wars it needs to 12:45 bankruptcy and even and even worse you 12:48 know it's grey alright I don't think 12:52 ever in history that one country started 12:54 a trade why and other country says oh 12:57 well that's too bad but we're not going 12:59 to do anything we're just going to sit 13:01 here and let you hit us again and again 13:03 and again 13:04 no the other countries retaliate that's 13:07 the way human beings are the country X 13:09 starts a trade with and countrywide hits 13:11 back in country X hits back and 13:14 countrywide hits back in the next thing 13:16 you know country c and d and e 13:18 are involved as well and everybody 13:21 suffering and then this economy's get 13:23 worse more and more things happen more 13:27 and more discrimination more and more 13:29 blame and then eventually bullets start 13:32 flying 13:33 so now I I don't like it all what i see 13:36 happening it's there many analogies that 13:38 the previous periods in history before 13:40 the First World War this sort of thing 13:43 started happening and certainly before 13:44 the second world war the start of things 13:47 started happening it's been it's been 13:50 common throughout history and these wars 13:53 know when they start they usually in 13:56 1914 nobody nobody could conceive of war 14:01 and then the next thing you know it was 14:04 war and everybody said don't worry it'll 14:06 be over by Christmas well six months 14:09 later everybody was saying how did we 14:10 get into this war how do we get out of 14:12 this war it's absurd its Lucas etcetera 14:15 and that's been the case for many many 14:18 most wars if you go back and look some 14:20 bureaucrat throws his weight around the 14:22 next thing you know another bureaucrat 14:24 throws his weight around and the next 14:26 thing you know 20 year old kids are 14:28 shooting ensure instead of drinking beer 14:30 together and everybody suffering so now 14:34 that my word I'm very worried and I know 14:36 enough history to know that beast angst 14:39 have all fun all friend let you real war 14:43 certain you know we just had a president 14:45 who won the nobel peace prize of all 14:48 things we started more Wars probably the 14:51 most presidents in American history of 14:54 America seems to have a pension for war 14:57 and they seem to like to get involved 15:00 well I do know that during the last 15:03 administration mr. Obama's 15:06 administration is you probably remember 15:08 we started we tried to pull off a new 15:12 legal coup in the in Ukraine you know we 15:16 we got caught at it huh what's her name 15:18 of victoria London whatever the woman's 15:22 name is taking part of a if there are 15:24 several pieces of evidence where we know 15:27 she tried to instigate an illegal cool 15:30 then of course 15:31 the Russians out smartest and so the 15:34 state department started playing it on 15:35 the Russians and the hype against the 15:38 Russians has gotten bigger and bigger 15:40 ever since after we started the trying 15:44 to start trying to instigate the illegal 15:46 coup in you in Crimea and Ukraine so yes 15:51 we we are certainly that fall to some 15:54 extent and obviously you then when your 15:57 cart you gotta keep the rhetoric up and 16:00 keep throwing more and more accusations 16:01 and so the State Department has done 16:04 that I know that before that illegal coo 16:07 Obama Bush everybody was trying to be 16:11 friends with the Russians rightly so 16:14 colloid ended long ago the Russians 16:16 wanted to be friends with America that 16:19 we didn't need NATO anymore who needed 16:21 the cold war etc all the money we were 16:23 spending on some of these her arms 16:26 manufacturers and ends soldiers 16:29 [Music] 16:44 [Music] 16:49 will always be there signs along the way 16:52 will be some of the things i mentioned 16:55 you will start seeing bankruptcies by 16:57 companies are countries that are 17:00 extended overextended in US dollars and 17:03 cents dollars going higher 17:05 they cannot repay their debts you will 17:07 see American companies and American 17:10 balance of trade getting worse because 17:12 of the high dollar the signs will be 17:14 pretty clear if we did pretty simple 17:17 science they've been around for hundreds 17:19 of years thousands of years 17:21 I just hope I'm smart enough to 17:22 recognize them and have the inside to 17:25 interpret them properly 17:27 well all those guys are smarter than I 17:29 am so I I don't know I anyway i'm not 17:33 short bonds at the moment certainly 17:35 would have been a good trade last summer 17:37 as you pointed out that once made a a 17:40 higher interest rates may be lower 17:42 long-term rates made alone they have 17:45 rallied sense but for my money right now 17:49 as we speak in favor of 2017 everybody 17:53 is bullish on long-term US government 17:56 bonds I've been around long enough Eric 17:58 to know that when everybody's on the 18:00 same side of the boat I better run to 18:02 the other side so i am not shorting 18:04 government bonds i am sure your junk 18:07 bonds still if and when the boot that 18:11 trade was always lead to problems how 18:15 often to disaster sometimes even to have 18:18 real war shooting war so i don't know 18:20 i'm not sure mr. truck knows he said so 18:23 many things and many of the things a 18:25 contradictory now if he's not going to 18:28 have trade wars with various people then 18:31 chances are for a while 18:33 happy days are here but i still own the 18:37 dollar the dollar fortune is having a 18:39 correction now you know all bull markets 18:42 need corrections corrections are good i 18:45 haven't sold any I may have even bought 18:47 more for all I know now I still see the 18:50 same thing that whatever happens in the 18:53 world there is going to be some turmoil 18:55 somewhere on the line 18:57 we're already seeing it in some places 18:59 euro still having its own version of 19:02 turmoil is going to have a 19:03 lot more this year so the dollar is 19:05 going to be quote a safe haven as we 19:09 discussed last year again is not a safe 19:11 haven but it is perceived as a safe 19:14 haven and end it back for some countries 19:16 it is a safe haven compared to state 19:18 that you're over other other currencies 19:21 so I still on the dollar the 19:23 fundamentals have only gotten worse but 19:25 the fundamentals have gotten everywhere 19:27 have gotten worse everywhere except 19:29 maybe Russia so I still own the US 19:31 dollar I've been around long enough to 19:35 know that anything is possible no matter 19:37 how weird it may sound in fact the 19:40 weirder it sounds more likely it's 19:41 probably going to happen 19:43 I i doubt if it's gonna be applied to 19:45 record this time around it's more like 19:47 this that the dollar is going to go 19:49 higher and higher on its own volition 19:51 for some of the reasons we discussed it 19:54 will get too high it will it will cause 19:56 serious credit problems for some people 19:59 that I got a lot of people at bart a lot 20:01 of dollars 20:02 it will also make many American 20:04 companies less competitive so the money 20:06 is going to go to high may turn into a 20:09 bubble at which point i hope i'm smart 20:12 enough to sell it because at some point 20:14 market forces are going to cause the 20:17 dollar to come back down because people 20:19 are going to realize oh my gosh this is 20:21 causing a lot of turmoil economic 20:25 problems in the world and it's damaging 20:27 the American economy at that point the 20:30 smart guys will get out i hope i'm one 20:32 of them but if it turns into a ball 20:35 bubbles look the same at no matter what 20:38 country what period of history would be 20:40 what assets now everybody scream provide 20:42 screaming that it's different this time 20:45 you don't understand your man you just 20:47 cannot understand why everybody needs on 20:50 under own dollars so the signs 20:53 the truck instead he's going to do some 21:02 wonderful things he's going to cut taxes 21:04 which is always great for any society in 21:06 any country he said he's going to 21:08 rebuild the infrastructure which America 21:10 desperately needs and is good for 21:12 America he says he's going to bring home 21:15 the three trillion dollars u.s. dollars 21:18 which American companies have a oversees 21:21 all of these things are wonderful 21:23 wonderful things and if he can do it 21:25 Wow things going to be great but mr. 21:29 Trump is also said he's going to have 21:32 trade war with China Mexico Japan Korea 21:36 do other people that he has named he's 21:39 for their own his first day in office he 21:42 would impose 45% tariffs against China 21:45 has been there three weeks two or three 21:47 weeks and he hasn't done it yet but he 21:50 still got it in his head I'm sure maybe 21:53 it's just another politician like all 21:54 the rest of them says one thing it 21:56 doesn't mean it at all but he does have 21:59 at least three people in high levels in 22:03 his group were very very keen to have 22:06 trade wars with China and other people 22:08 if he does that Eric it's all over 22:12 I mean issues very clear changes and 22:15 people less skeptical of bonds go down 22:17 and everybody starts saying oh bonds 22:20 cheated me she lied to me they've had 22:23 then I might be ready to short once 22:26 again because we're certainly in the 22:27 process of making a top when that top 22:31 comes I don't know I'm smart I'm a very 22:34 very very bad market time as you know 22:36 I'm a very very bad short-term trader so 22:40 you should have those other guys to get 22:42 your timing 22:44 well I happen to agree with you a 22:45 hundred percent that very fact that I'm 22:47 still so much junk bonds and what it 22:49 means is definitely the timing is wrong 22:52 I no junk and when interest rates start 22:55 going up again 22:57 formerly when the wonderful market 22:59 really does come to an end in the 23:01 interest rates government bonds interest 23:04 rates are going to go very very high 23:06 there 23:07 very high I told you how I you would 23:09 probably hang up now and not listen to 23:12 me anymore but you know in 1981 interest 23:16 rate short-term interest rates in 23:17 America were over twenty percent bonds 23:20 wielding over long-term bonds feeling 23:22 over fifteen percent we've had these 23:24 long bull and bear markets in bonds in 23:28 the United States and we probably will 23:30 again when interest rates go higher the 23:33 job
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
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