BI: The word on Wall Street is that the commodities super cycle is now over. Do you subscribe to that view?
Jim Rogers : Well I'm very keen to hear that, especially since none of these people saw the bull market coming. All those people who didn't see it coming and weren't convinced it was happening, are now saying it's all over. I'm sure you know that bull markets climb a wall of worry and we're certainly having a wall of worry and skepticism which is good.
In 1987 stocks around the globe fell 40% and many people said the
bull market was over. Then in 1989, 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998 there were
many times when stocks collapsed and everybody was convinced the bull
market was over. The bull market wasn't over. It eventually ended in a
bubble. In my view that's happening with commodities. I don't see major
sources of new supply coming in on stream. Most commodities don't have
massive new supply yet. For instance, agriculture has produced record
levels for the past few years and yet inventories are the lowest in 40
years because consumption keeps going higher and higher, faster than
production does. We have serious fundamental problems developing in
agriculture. I don't see enough new supply to cause the bull market to
end other than a temporary consolidation, especially since so many
people are convinced and quick to rush out and write that the bull
market is over. But we'll see.Most bull markets have lasted for a couple of decades, or nearly a couple of decades. And in my view supply is not there yet. By the way if economies slow down, it would affect demand for all commodities but then Mr. Bernanke and his friends are going to print a lot more money. It's the wrong thing to do but unfortunately that's all they know to do, and they'll do more. -
in Business Insider
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
