JIM ROGERS

JIM ROGERS

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Jim Rogers : I Bought More Gold Today Bull Market Far From Over


When Jim Rogers talks, investors listen. Rogers may be the world’s best-known commodity investor, with his Rogers International Commodity Index and best-selling books, including “Hot Commodities.” HAI Managing Editor Sumit Roy spoke this week with Rogers from his home in Singapore about commodities, including whether he’s ready to buy gold after the recent plunge in prices.

HardAssetsInvestor: A lot of investment banks have recently called an end to the commodities super cycle that began more than a decade ago. Do you think they’re wrong?

Jim Rogers: I'm delighted to hear that. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. I'm not quite sure where the supply is coming from that would cause the bull market to end. Maybe they know something I don’t. But when you look back at the stock bull market from 1982 to 2000, stocks collapsed in 1987, ’89, ’90, ’94, ’97, ’98. And every time, people said the bull market is over. But it wasn't. This bull market in commodities will definitely come to an end someday. But someday is not here yet.

HAI: What signs do you look for to determine when the bull market is close to ending or has ended?

Rogers: Well, when there’s massive new supply coming on stream, then we’ll have the end of the bull market. But the world has consumed more agriculture products than it has produced for a decade now. But worse than that, we’re running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58; in Japan, it’s 66. Many of the industrial metals are now below the cost of production.

And nearly everybody has cut back dramatically on their expansion plans and investment plans. Oil reserves are declining pretty steadily around the world. We do have shale oil, which has caused a rise in supply. But that’s only in the U.S; the rest of the world has declined. Moreover, it remains to be seen how long the oil boom in the U.S. will continue.

HAI: All the talk recently has been about the recent plunge in gold. You've been saying, for a long time now— even when prices were hitting record highs—that you weren't going to buy until prices corrected to $1,200. Are you still planning on buying there?

Rogers: Yes, if it gets there. I bought more today, as a matter of fact. I bought a little bit, not much, over the last few days in case this was the bottom. I would not be surprised if there's another chance to buy lower later on, but I'm buying and I own it. I haven't sold any.

HAI: How do you determine whether gold is a good value or not? What has to happen for you to get completely out of gold and stay out?

Rogers: All these things will end in a bubble some day. Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over with. And when there's a bubble in gold, I hope I'm smart enough to get out. We haven't seen a bubble yet. Until recently, if you went around any U.S. city, you would see signs outside many jewelry stores saying “We buy gold.” And the American people line up to sell gold. Later there’ll be signs there saying, “We sell gold,” and people will be lining up to buy it in big ways. That hasn't happened yet.

Rogers: All these things will end in a bubble some day. Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over with. And when there's a bubble in gold, I hope I'm smart enough to get out. We haven't seen a bubble yet. Until recently, if you went around any U.S. city, you would see signs outside many jewelry stores saying “We buy gold.” And the American people line up to sell gold. Later there’ll be signs there saying, “We sell gold,” and people will be lining up to buy it in big ways. That hasn't happened yet.

Rogers: All these things will end in a bubble some day. Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over with. And when there's a bubble in gold, I hope I'm smart enough to get out. We haven't seen a bubble yet. Until recently, if you went around any U.S. city, you would see signs outside many jewelry stores saying “We buy gold.” And the American people line up to sell gold. Later there’ll be signs there saying, “We sell gold,” and people will be lining up to buy it in big ways. That hasn't happened yet.- in Hard Assets Investor
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/interviews/4917-jim-rogers-i-bought-more-gold-today-bull-market-far-from-over.html

 

Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.





Who is Jim Rogers ?

James "Jim" Rogers was born in Oct. 19, 1942 and grew up in Demopolis, Alabama .Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendry investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%. They ran what is considered to be one of the first truly global macro hedge funds. . In 1964 he got his first job on Wall Street at Dominick & Dominick in the summer between high school and Yale University, that's how he got his first experience with stocks and bonds. He immediately fell in love with the job. After Oxford, he returned to the U.S. and joined the army in 1970 he returned to Wall Street, working again with Dominick & Dominick. That same year he joined Arnold S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros, and together founded the Quantum Fund. This has opened a new era of global macrotrading and inspired numerous imitations and spin-offs. In the book "Money Masters of Our Time," Jim Rogers writes about that time "the most important thing in my life was work. I did not do anything until I had completed my work." To emphasize this professional ethic , it is good to remember that he did not made any holiday for ten years. In 1980, Jim Rogers has decided to "retire" at 37 years. Since then he has spent much of his time traveling and supporting the causes of philanthropic and taking on many high profile roles in the media. However, he continues to be an active investor and media commentator

Jim Rogers "the 19th century was the century of the UK , the 20th century was the century of the US , the 21 st century is going to be the century of China "